I keep seeing over and over again how the exit polls indicate that the Republicans lost because of concerns about Iraq.
Am I the only one to whom it has occured that exit polls only reflect the opinions of the people who showed up to vote?
I mean…that should be fairly obvious. Normally, it wouldn’t say much…I mean, generally it could be assumed that the people who showed up are the people who can always be counted on to show up to vote.
This election was different:
Democrat turnout was spurred by the anti-GWB, anti-Iraq, anti-Cheney, anti-Rumsfeld rhetoric. Democrats were encouraged by the nonstop MSM predictions of a Dem congressional takeover and “moderates” (read people who can’t make up their mind until the last minute and cast votes based upon opinion polls and hyperbole rather than core beliefs and positions) were swayed by the MSM downplaying of (read virtually completely ignoring) Democrat scandals and beating to death any Republican missteps and improprieties day after day.
This normally wouldn’t be that significant except for the fact that Republican turnout was supressed by dissatisfaction with the Republicans in office. Run away spending and earmarks, failure to control the borders, lack of meaningful (or actually ANY) tax reform, failure to address the Social Security system problems, increasing the role of the Federal government in places it doesn’t belong, the utterly heinous and unconstitutional “Campaign Finance Reform” law etc. The ONLY three things that the Republicans have managed to do, in spite of their majority, is let the AWB die, the tax cuts of long ago (which still have not been made permanent and will be going away in a couple of years), and getting a couple of decent (we hope) Supreme Court justices seated. Heck, they couldn’t even get John Bolton, who has done an awesome job representing the interests of the country in the UN, approved for the post.
Basically, the Democrats were absolutely enthused to be going to the polls whereas Republicans…even those who DID vote…were forced to hold their noses and vote for the lesser of two evils. Many simply couldn’t do it. Many decided that the gap between those two evils is closing rapidly and soon it will be a choice between equal evils if it isn’t already. Many Republicans simply decided that that root canal they’ve been putting off, or cleaning the gutters, or mucking out the horse stalls just seemed like a lot more fun than casting votes for disappointing faux conservatives.
If you don’t show up at the polls, you can’t be asked why you voted with your feet.
The exit polls are NEVER a reliable indicator of the political climate and this election cycle, the unreliability was exacerbated ten-fold by circumstances. If the few remaining Republicans and those hoping to gain a seat in two years trust the exit polls and shape their platforms along those lines, we could be in for a very long spell of Democrat majorities in congress.
But that’s just my 12 Ore.